Strong to Severe Storms Today

Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for a large area in yellow, a Marginal Risk in green, and an Enhanced Risk for portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama in orange.

Here is the tornado threat with 2% in green, 5% in brown, and 10% hatched significant in yellow.

Here are the damaging wind threats.

5% in brown, 10% in yellow, and 30% hatched significant in red, this includes portions of Arkansas, West Central Tennessee, North Miss, and North Alabama.

Here is the hail threat with

5% in brown, 10% in hatched significant in yellow, and 30% hatched significant in red, this includes portions of Arkansas, West Central Tennessee, North Miss, and North Alabama

In addition to the storms, flash flooding is possible as rounds of storms capable of producing heavy rain moves through.

The WPC has issued a Marginal Risk in green, Slight Risk in yellow and a Moderate Risk in Red

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Stay  tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings. 

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Enjoy Today, More Strong/Severe Storms Saturday

Enjoy today as a small bubble of high pressure systems moves over the area. It will be moved out my Saturday Afternoon and strong to severe storms in an isolated fashion are expected to develop. All modes are possible, but at this time a lower risk than yesterday.

Here you can see Western & Central Kentucky placed in a level 2 Slight Risk in yellow.

A marginal risk in green covers almost the rest of the state to the east.

Tornado Risk is a 2% risk in green, 5% chance in brown, and a 10% in yellow.

Here is the damaging wind threat 

5% in brown, and 15% in yellow.

Here is the hail threat

5% in brown, 15% in yellow.

I will be checking model forecasts through out the day to see how much changes by tomorrow. 

Stay  tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings. 

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Tornado Watch, High, Moderate Risk Dixie Alley, Enhanced Ohio Valley

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

Yet again we are looking at the potential for a severe weather/tornado outbreak across Dixie Alley. Some locations that seen severe weather about a week ago are again under the threat. This time it includes much more of the Ohio Valley.

Here below you can see the hatched significant 30% risk in pink, 15 percent risk for tornadoes in red, and 10 percent hatched significant in yellow. This includes portions of the following states in pink, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. In red, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. In orange a large swath of states which includes Kentucky, In yellow, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Here is the damaging wind threat 45% in pink, 30% hatched significant in Red.

Hail 30% hatched significant in Red.

4:57 update

3:40 pm update 

Tornado watch forthcoming with an 80 percent chance of issuance. The threat for tornadoes across western Kentucky will increase during the next couple of hours. 

1:54 update

With instability still in question. We are currently seeing some breaks in the clouds leading to some sunshine in some areas. This will increase instability this afternoon and evening giving fuel to developing thunderstorms. The locations with the most sunshine stand the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms. 

Stay tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings. 

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High & Moderate Risk for Dixie Alley

 The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare High Risk for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. A Moderate Risk for portions of Arkansas which includes Little Rock, Tennessee which includes Memphis,  the northern half of Mississippi, NE Louisiana, and a large portion of Alabama.

All modes of severe weather can be expected in the High Risk area with strong violent tornadoes possible. Also possible in Moderate Risk area with coverage being less wide spread in the Marginal and Enhanced areas. Nonetheless, the potentials are there for locations in/near any outlined location.

Here is the tornado potential for Tomorrow

45% hatched significant in purple, 30% hatched significant in pink, 15% significant hatched in red, and 10% hatched significant in yellow. Elsewhere 5% in brown, 2% green.

What this means (ex): 15% Significant chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location in/near the red outline.

Here is the damaging wind threat

Hatched Significant 45% in pink and 30% in red.

The hail threat

30% hatched significant in Arkansas and West Tennessee, North Louisiana, North and Central Mississippi.

                 PDS Tornado Watch

             (Particularly Dangerous Situation)

Stay tuned to the NWS and your local Meteorologists for immediate updates for watches and warnings. 

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Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Warning South

Winter Storm Watch Canceled and replaced with Winter Weather Advisory in purple for 1-4 inches of snow in North Central Kentucky. To the South a Winter Storm Warning in pink has been issued for 3-5 inches and light ice accumulations.

Pivotal Weather HRRR predicted Snowfall totals. Shows a swath ranging from 2-5 inches across the state.

NWS Predicted Snowfall Forecast 

NWS Predicted Ice Accretion

Talk about rubbing salt on sore wounds. Over 100,000 customers in Kentucky are still without power from the last two ice storms and once more they are looking at the potential for more.

Accuweather Radar

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Winter Storm Warning Monday to Tuesday

Winter Storm Warning from 7 pm est Sunday to 1 pm est Tuesday. 

Winter Storm Warning

CORRECTED TO REMOVE START TIMING IN THE WHEN SECTION OF THE WINTER STORM SEGMENTS

...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.The first of two waves of wintry precipitation is moving through the region early this morning, bringing snow north of the Parkways in Kentucky, and then a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain south of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways. The second, and more potent, wave will move into the region early this afternoon bring moderate to at times heavy wintry precipitation. An ice storm is expected near the Lake Cumberland vicinity, with sleet dominating the precipitation from Bowling Green to Lexington and then snow north of that line.

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher amounts. Some sleet is possible south of a Hartford to Elizabethtown to Shelbyville line.

* WHERE...South central Indiana and central Kentucky along and north of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall is expected this afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible...especially when snowfall rates come faster than treatment methods can handle.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

In Indiana, for road conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org/pws

In Kentucky, for road conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Difficult forecast to make today, we will have to wait to see exactly where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up across the state. I know it's a bit disheartening to see the same areas hit by the previous ice storm starting to fall in line for another one. Ice is still in on trees and powerlines at this time, so it won't take much to bring them down once more. The farther Northwest you are the more likely you will see accumulating snow fall of 8-12 inches. 

You can see from the HRRR model where it is thinking this line sets up. Freezing rain/ ice to the East in the pink, sleet mix in purple, and all snow in blue. If you are in Eastern Kentucky, be prepared once more for power outages and dangerous driving conditions.

Accuweather Radar.

WPC Discussion about snowfall rates.

WPC discussion about freezing rain.

Long range forecast snow accumulations ( amounts between 2 systems). 

NWS Louisville Ice Accretion.

Ice Storm Warning Wednesday-Thursday

Ice storm in progress across Kentucky.

 Current Radar

Ice Storm Warning

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

.Significant ice accumulations are expected across much of central Kentucky today and tonight, and then expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday. To the north of the Parkways, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected.

There still remains a bit of uncertainty on the northward extent of the most significant icing. Changes to the current warning and advisory structure may be required in future forecast updates.

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Widespread ice accumulations of a quarter to half inch, with localized amounts up to three quarters of an inch. Isolated higher amounts are possible. The heaviest ice accumulation is expected to occur south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.

* WHERE...Much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Today and tonight near the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Significant power outages and tree damage are expected due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible at times.

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. If you must use a generator for emergency power, make sure that you run the generator outside of your home...not inside your home.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit https://goky.ky.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

   Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 101718Z - 102115Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to expand in coverage and
   intensity across portions of the Ohio river valley this afternoon.
   Freezing rain rates approaching 0.05 to 0.1 inches per hour will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...12z upper-air observations showed broad cyclonic flow
   across the northern 3rd of the CONUS with several small shortwave
   troughs embedded within this flow. Over the last 2 hours, radar data
   shows stratiform precipitation across portions of southern Illinois
   and eastern Missouri increasing in coverage/intensity likely due to
   increased isentropic and large scale ascent from one of the
   approaching shortwave troughs. Surface observations under the
   developing band of precipitation indicate freezing rain/ mist as the
   primary precipitation type across the area.

   Hi-res model guidance and observational data suggest that rain rates
   will gradually increase through the afternoon as isentropic ascent
   continues to strengthen along and north of the surface front. A few
   thunderstorms my also develop across the region with guidance
   indicating MUCAPE around 100-150 J/kg aloft. Rates may approach 0.1
   in/hr in the heaviest cores through this afternoon. Additional
   precipitation will likely expand southwestward as greater forcing
   for ascent develops aloft. Freezing rain and occasional sleet appear
   to be the most likely precipitation types through the next several
   hours given upstream and downstream RAOBS showing fairly uniform
   +1-2 C warm layers atop sub freezing surface layers.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 02/10/2021

Majority State wide Ice Storm Warning in purple.

NWS overall thinking on ice accumulations across the state of Kentucky.

Overall Snowfall accumulations across the state.

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