Significant Severe Weather Today

A Moderate Risk is in effect for the Ohio Valley. One to two rounds of severe thunderstorms remains possible this afternoon and evening across the outlook area. All modes of severe weather is possible, including a few strong, violent, long track tornadoes. 15% hatched significant threat for tornadoes, 30% hatched significant damaging winds, and large hail. A Severe QLCS moved through this morning and produced heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Will need to to continue to watch the atmospheric recovery before the next round of storms this evening. Supercell storms capable of tornadoes (some strong) is possible, especially in the Moderate and Enhanced Risk hatched areas. Strong/destructive damaging winds are also a threat noted in 30% hatched. Large hail us also 30% hatched. 

Please stay weather aware!

Hrrr model is hinting at at least 2 more rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible.

Radar

Severe Weather Potential Monday-Tuesday

 The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a good chunk for a Slight Risk Monday and Tuesday. We will need to stay tuned for updates to see how this system evolves over the next few days. All modes of severe weather appears to be possible, but at this time is it too early to get specific about the timing and storm mode as things may change with new model runs. 

D5 Monday

D6 Tuesday

Strong to severe storms tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after midnight. The strongest storms are expected in and around the Enhanced Risk area, however all modes cannot be ruled out into the overnight hours across portions of the Ohio Valley. Current conditions as of 8:00 am eastern, sunny skies with little cloud cover.

Forecast soundings show a marginal severe weather threat across Central Kentucky. One to two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. A squall line or a cluster of strong to severe storms are expected to move through Central Kentucky after midnight. Initial storm mode in the beginning could be supercells especially across the Enhanced and Slight Risk Area. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for portions of Northern Kentucky, updated soundings even show conditions to be favorable for a marginal tornado threat with the cluster of storms. Will need to watch and see how these storms evolve after development. Nonetheless, have a way to be woken up should severe weather occur for your area and stay tuned to your local Meteorologists for immediate broadcasts of watches and warnings. 

Radar:

Severe Weather Photos from February 28th, 2024 in Central Kentucky

In the early morning hours on February 28th, 2024, Kentucky experienced rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. My location received 1.00" hail, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and heavy rain that led to minor river flooding. Below is a short photo galley.

Severe Weather late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Kentucky into a Slight Risk for severe weather. All modes of severe weather is possible, especially with the second round. Any discreet storms across the Slight Risk Area will have the potential to become supercells. The first round of showers and thunderstorms will move into the area at around 7-10 am. After the storms move through with damaging winds, hail, heavy rain and lightning, destabilization is possible. Should this occur, the evening and overnight threat for severe weather will increase. A 10% hatched in yellow, 5% tornado threat in brown and a 2% tornado threat in green has been introduced across portions of the Ohio Valley. A squall line is likely to move through the area overnight, brief tornadoes could occur within this line. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be gusting up to 40 mph at times. A Wind Advisory will go into affect this afternoon. Stay weather aware.

A tornado watch is forthcoming 

Marginal severe weather threat Tuesday & Wednesday

There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rain are the primary hazards with the first round. Isolated brief tornadoes are possible with the storms out ahead of the front moving into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings at the show a marginal tornado threat.

Second round of storms with stronger potential. 

Wind Advisory

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. High profile vehicles traveling on west to east roads will encounter challenging driving conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS..Peak wind gusts will likely occur between Tuesday late afternoon and early Wednesday morning.

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Severe Weather Potential

As spring begins to sprung, so does the severe weather potential. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (15%) chance for severe thunderstorms well in advance on day 6 and day 7. We'll take it day by day with the model runs to better get a handle on the storm mode and severe weather hazards. An upgrade may or may not be issued. Stay tuned!

In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms are expected today. None of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe, but gusty winds and heavy rainfall is possible. There is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today.