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Monday, February 15, 2021

Winter Storm Warning Monday to Tuesday



Winter Storm Warning from 7 pm est Sunday to 1 pm est Tuesday. 

Winter Storm Warning

CORRECTED TO REMOVE START TIMING IN THE WHEN SECTION OF THE WINTER STORM SEGMENTS

...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.The first of two waves of wintry precipitation is moving through the region early this morning, bringing snow north of the Parkways in Kentucky, and then a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain south of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways. The second, and more potent, wave will move into the region early this afternoon bring moderate to at times heavy wintry precipitation. An ice storm is expected near the Lake Cumberland vicinity, with sleet dominating the precipitation from Bowling Green to Lexington and then snow north of that line.

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher amounts. Some sleet is possible south of a Hartford to Elizabethtown to Shelbyville line.

* WHERE...South central Indiana and central Kentucky along and north of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall is expected this afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible...especially when snowfall rates come faster than treatment methods can handle.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

In Indiana, for road conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org/pws

In Kentucky, for road conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov


Difficult forecast to make today, we will have to wait to see exactly where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up across the state. I know it's a bit disheartening to see the same areas hit by the previous ice storm starting to fall in line for another one. Ice is still in on trees and powerlines at this time, so it won't take much to bring them down once more. The farther Northwest you are the more likely you will see accumulating snow fall of 8-12 inches. 


You can see from the HRRR model where it is thinking this line sets up. Freezing rain/ ice to the East in the pink, sleet mix in purple, and all snow in blue. If you are in Eastern Kentucky, be prepared once more for power outages and dangerous driving conditions.

Accuweather Radar.



WPC Discussion about snowfall rates.

WPC discussion about freezing rain.


Long range forecast snow accumulations ( amounts between 2 systems). 


NWS Louisville Ice Accretion.


Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Ice Storm Warning Wednesday-Thursday

Ice storm in progress across Kentucky.


 Current Radar



Ice Storm Warning

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

.Significant ice accumulations are expected across much of central Kentucky today and tonight, and then expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday. To the north of the Parkways, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected.

There still remains a bit of uncertainty on the northward extent of the most significant icing. Changes to the current warning and advisory structure may be required in future forecast updates.

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Widespread ice accumulations of a quarter to half inch, with localized amounts up to three quarters of an inch. Isolated higher amounts are possible. The heaviest ice accumulation is expected to occur south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.

* WHERE...Much of central Kentucky.

* WHEN...Today and tonight near the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, expanding into south central Kentucky tonight and Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Significant power outages and tree damage are expected due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible at times.

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. If you must use a generator for emergency power, make sure that you run the generator outside of your home...not inside your home.

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit https://goky.ky.gov



Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

   Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 101718Z - 102115Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to expand in coverage and
   intensity across portions of the Ohio river valley this afternoon.
   Freezing rain rates approaching 0.05 to 0.1 inches per hour will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...12z upper-air observations showed broad cyclonic flow
   across the northern 3rd of the CONUS with several small shortwave
   troughs embedded within this flow. Over the last 2 hours, radar data
   shows stratiform precipitation across portions of southern Illinois
   and eastern Missouri increasing in coverage/intensity likely due to
   increased isentropic and large scale ascent from one of the
   approaching shortwave troughs. Surface observations under the
   developing band of precipitation indicate freezing rain/ mist as the
   primary precipitation type across the area.

   Hi-res model guidance and observational data suggest that rain rates
   will gradually increase through the afternoon as isentropic ascent
   continues to strengthen along and north of the surface front. A few
   thunderstorms my also develop across the region with guidance
   indicating MUCAPE around 100-150 J/kg aloft. Rates may approach 0.1
   in/hr in the heaviest cores through this afternoon. Additional
   precipitation will likely expand southwestward as greater forcing
   for ascent develops aloft. Freezing rain and occasional sleet appear
   to be the most likely precipitation types through the next several
   hours given upstream and downstream RAOBS showing fairly uniform
   +1-2 C warm layers atop sub freezing surface layers.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 02/10/2021


Majority State wide Ice Storm Warning in purple.






NWS overall thinking on ice accumulations across the state of Kentucky.





Overall Snowfall accumulations across the state.








Sunday, January 31, 2021

Winter Weather Advisory Tonight, Eyeing Late Week Potential.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky.



* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions developing overnight. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For Indiana Road Conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org/pws

For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit https://goky.ky.gov



From pivotalweather.com 

Comparing the HRRR Model and NAM 3km model, they agree with a Snowfall range of .5 to up to 2 inches of snow for most locations across Kentucky. Southeastern Kentucky stands the potential to slightly exceed these amounts. 

HRR Model

NAM 3km


 


Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Winter Weather Advisory, Flood Warning.

Flood Warning: The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...

Rolling Fork River near Boston affecting Hardin and Nelson Counties.
.Heavy rain from Monday has caused the river to rise.
The Flood Warning continues for the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* Until late Wednesday night.
* At 10:30 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 35.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 10:30 PM EST Tuesday was 35.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 35.6 feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Agricultural bottomland is covered.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.3 feet on 02/22/2019.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest information.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions. Additional information is available at water.weather.gov/ahps2/index. php?wfo=lmk
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lmk.
The next statement will be issued Wednesday.

Winter Weather 

Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment weather.gov/lmk/winter


A Winter Weather Advisory has been isssued: 
Accumulating Snow This Afternoon and Evening...

.Accumulating snow will cross southern Indiana and central Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Hazardous travel conditions are likely for the afternoon and evening rush hour.
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
* WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slick and hazardous road conditions especially during the evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
For Indiana Road Conditions please visit https://pws.trafficwise.org/pws
For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit https://goky.ky.gov

Probability of snow accumulating more than or equal to 1 inch.


Probability of snow accumulating up to 2 inches or more.






 

Monday, January 25, 2021

Slight risk for severe weather Today

There is a slight chance for severe weather across portions of Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy rain at times will continue throughout the day. Rainfall totals up to 3 inches in some locations are possible.


Here is the Marginal Risk is dark green.

Hail potential.
2 percent Tornado Threat in dark green.
5 percent chance for damaging winds in brown.




Saturday, January 23, 2021

Freezing Rain Sunday Morning

 Special Weather Statement


Freezing rain may result in a light glaze of ice tomorrow morning over southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky. Freezing rain amounts up to a tenth of an inch are possible in southern Indiana, while amounts in northern Kentucky should be 0.05 inches or less. This glaze may result in hazardous driving conditions. 

A glaze can quickly form on elevated surfaces, but sidewalks and driveways may also become slick.


If you plan on driving tomorrow morning, be prepared for slick spots on untreated roadways. Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by late morning.

Here is the probabilistic Snowfall Experiment. The farther northwest you are, the more likely you are to receive higher freezing rain totals.


Friday, January 15, 2021

Winter Weather Advisory

 


Winter Weather Advisory

Winter Weather Advisory This Evening Into Saturday Morning...

.Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected later this evening, lasting through the overnight, and tapering Saturday morning. Light accumulations between a half inch and 1 inch are expected in many locations and could cause some slick spots on untreated roadways. Isolated instances of amounts up to 2 inches can't be ruled out for spots that see the most intense and repeated snow showers.

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch. Localized amounts near 2 inches possible for some.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and south central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery conditions for untreated roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated snow showers are possible earlier in the afternoon and could cause brief accumulations and reduced visibilities.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.