Strong to Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening

An Enhanced Risk is in place Today for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A squall line is expected to re-intensify as it approaches from the west and into the Ohio Valley. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, but a brief tornado or two is possible.

Here are the current Tornado Watches:

Moderate Risk Tuesday

 Another bi model Moderate Risk has once again been issued for some of the exact same areas as the last severe weather outbreak. Per the SPC: Confidence is increasing in the potential for rare and dangerous overnight tornadoes and damaging winds and a Moderate Risk has been introduced for this region. 

Slight Risk Wednesday

 The SPC has issued a Day 3 Slight Risk

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms appear possible based off of the latest HRRR model update. Uncertainties remain and more updates will come.

2 High Risk Areas, Severe Weather Outbreak Likely

Summary

There have been at least 95 preliminary Tornado Reports.

 A rare High Risk has been issued for two separate areas including portions of Southeastern Iowa, Illinois, Southeast Arkansas, Western Tennessee, and Northern Mississippi. Prepare now for a particularly dangerous situation within the High and Moderate Risk Areas!

Strong, long lived, potentially violent tornadoes are likely in the High Risk Pink Areas, this is a tornado driven High Risk upgrade with a 30% hatched significant tornado threat! An isolated QCLS tornado or two cannot be ruled out over the Ohio Valley, but due to the lack of instability from rounds of showers and thunderstorms, the storms will be approaching at nighttime. The storms will begin to weaken once they approach areas along and east of I-65.

45% hatched significant damaging wind threat stretching from Eastern Iowa and includes a large portion of Illinois and Indiana.

Here is the hail threat which has also come up in intensity.

Strong winds are likely outside of thunderstorms for a large area. A Wind Advisory has been issued.

* WHAT..Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected

* WHERE.Southern Indiana and central Kentucky

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Saturday

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of over 40 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult.. especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     East-central and southeastern Illinois
     Western and central Indiana
     Western and central Kentucky
     Extreme southwestern Lower Michigan
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
     until 200 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
     inches in diameter possible

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Today

 A severe weather outbreak is possible Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across a large area. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk over a large area. This is where the tornado threat will be the strongest as these will likely be supercells. The MDT includes portions of Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Extreme Western Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. The MDT to the south has a 15% hatched significant tornado threat. The MDT to the north has a 45% hatched significant damaging wind threat. An isolated QCLS tornado or two cannot be ruled out over the Ohio Valley, but due to the lack of instability from rounds of showers and thunderstorms,the storms will be approaching at nighttime. The storms will begin to weaken once they approach areas along and east of I-65.

Strong winds are likely outside of thunderstorms for a large area. A Wind Advisory has been issued.

* WHAT..Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected

* WHERE.Southern Indiana and central Kentucky

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Saturday

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of over 40 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult.. especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Flood Threat, Strong to Severe Storms Friday

 There is a chance for strong to maybe even a severe thunderstorm across Kentucky on Friday. The biggest threat is heavy rainfall leading to flooding, therefore a Flood Watch has been issued. There is a moderate risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through Saturday. 

 

Flood Watch

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky Thursday night through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible. Southern Indiana is mostly likely to see the highest rainfall totals and greatest flood risk according to the latest forecast data. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Day 1, Todays Outlook

The strongest storms will occur in the Mississippi Valley where all modes are possible. A Moderate Risk and a 15% hatched significant tornado threat exists in portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

In Kentucky expect rounds and showers and thunderstorms, any storms that train may lead to flash flooding. A squall line is expected to develop and intensify in the afternoon hours and quickly move east across the state. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be possible.

Here is what the HRRR model shows as the squall line moves through Central Kentucky.

Severe Weather & Damaging Wind Threat Today

Strong winds are expected this afternoon with and without thunderstorms. A high wind warning was issued well in advance. A Flood Watch has also been issued for heavy rainfall potential.

Portions of Central/Eastern Kentucky and North Central Tennessee have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk with increased tornado and damaging wind probabilities. 

There are some uncertainties about how strong storms can get after a morning round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. If we are able to build enough instability and destabilize, we may see much stronger storms. The main threats are damaging winds, heavy rain, and an brief tornado or two, a couple could be strong.

High Wind Warning
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 55+ mph expected.
* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and south
central Kentucky.
* WHEN...From 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Friday.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Scattered to numerous power outages are possible. Travel will
be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts in and outside of thunderstorms
could exceed 60-65 mph.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Indiana and Kentucky, including the following

  counties, in Indiana, Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison,

  Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott and Washington. In Kentucky,

  Anderson, Bourbon, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Fayette, Franklin,

  Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Henry, Jefferson, Meade, Nelson,

  Nicholas, Oldham, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Trimble and Woodford.

* WHEN...From this evening through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across southern

    Indiana and northern Kentucky tonight and Friday. Rainfall

    amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be

    possible.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared

to take action should flooding develop.

A tornado watch:

Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

Flash Flood senario is taking shape.